For the first time, scientists have conducted an in-depth analysis on the potential disappearance of glaciers due to global warming, shifting the focus from merely evaluating ice mass loss to assessing how many glaciers will vanish entirely.
“Glaciers and coral reefs are iconic symbols of our planet’s health, and their disappearance starkly illustrates the impact of climate change,” notes Harry Zekollari from Vrije Universiteit in Brussels.
Thousands Will Vanish Each Year
Utilizing advanced models, researchers have projected the rate of glacier loss under various temperature scenarios—1.5, 2.7, and 4 degrees Celsius. They found that by the year 2041, approximately 2,000 glaciers could permanently disappear each year if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees. Unfortunately, this level of warming seems increasingly elusive. The findings, published in *Nature Climate Change*, suggest that at a 4-degree rise, this figure could escalate to 4,000 glaciers annually, out of the world’s estimated 200,000.
Significantly, the study indicates that maintaining temperatures below 1.5 degrees could more than double the number of glaciers still in existence by 2100, preserving them from the near-total loss projected under a scenario of 4.0 degrees of warming.
Half of the Alps’ Glaciers at Risk
The implications are dire for specific regions; the study predicts that within the next two decades, 50 percent of glaciers in the European Alps are at serious risk of disappearing.
“Initially, the smaller glaciers, such as those found in the European Alps, will be the first to go. Ultimately, only the larger glaciers in Greenland and Svalbard may remain,” warns Lander Van Tricht, a glaciology researcher at ETH Zurich.
In the video: Watch an AI timelapse showcasing how the glaciers in the Alps have melted over the past century.
