Understanding Russia: A Distant Collapse
Finland took a significant step in December 2023 when it closed its eastern border, responding to emerging evidence that Russia was leveraging migration as a geopolitical tool.
Western analysts, however, may be too quick to declare the imminent collapse of Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. This sentiment was echoed by two independent experts on Russia interviewed by Yle, both of whom maintain a critical stance toward the Kremlin.
Arkady Moshes, head of the Russia, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia program at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, emphasized that the nation’s political landscape is increasingly veering toward totalitarianism. Similarly, Dan Storyjev, a Russian-American and veteran member of the Russian rights organization OVD-Info, shares concerns about the trajectory of Russian governance.
Storyjev articulated a stark view: “The Soviet Union collapsed; the economic system unraveled, the political order transformed, and civil wars erupted in regions. Today, none of that is unfolding in Russia.” Both experts strongly suggested that a true collapse of the current Russian system is far from imminent.
Amidst widespread belief, particularly in Finland, that Russia is approaching an economic crisis, Moshes countered that the situation is not as dire as it seems. While acknowledging a growing budget deficit, he pointed out the state’s ongoing ability to borrow domestically. Furthermore, he noted that Putin has resources at his disposal, including the wealth of oligarchs, whose assets have recently been targeted for state revenue.
Reflecting on Western misconceptions, Moshes stated, “Analysts have shown excessive eagerness in forecasting Russia’s downfall.”
Military Stability
The Russian military, too, is not on the verge of disintegration. While Ukraine has gained the upper hand through successful home-front efforts and intensified drone strikes within Russian territory, Moshes warned that the situation could change if Russia adapts quickly. He noted that large corporations in Russia are being called upon to contribute more significantly to the war effort, effectively transforming them into financial backers of the state.
Within a span of six months, Moshes predicted, Russia is likely to improve its defensive capabilities, especially regarding critical infrastructure like oil refineries, which have been targeted by Ukrainian drones. He argued that if Ukraine managed to blockade Crimea, it would place Russia under considerable military strain, but he doubted that the West would allow such a situation to unfold. “A blockade would resemble the siege of Leningrad during World War II, leading to potential starvation for millions,” he warned.
The Kremlin’s Grip
Speculation about a coup against Putin occasionally surfaces, yet Moshes remains skeptical. He believes that the intricate web of security services in Russia creates a tightly controlled environment reminiscent of Belarus, making a successful conspiracy unlikely. “It’s hard to envision a large-scale revolution occurring without drawing attention,” he remarked.
Storyjev also highlighted the risks of opposing Putin’s regime within Russia. Following the invasion of Ukraine, anti-war protests faced violent reactions from security forces, reinforcing the precarious nature of dissent.
With the border closure still in effect, Moshes contended that it was a necessary measure at the time. However, he now argues that the rationale for maintaining this closure lacks strength. “Norway’s border with Russia remains open, and Estonia’s is only partially closed. Neither is experiencing a migration crisis,” he noted.
He further argued that keeping Finland’s eastern border sealed restricts the country’s ability to develop a nuanced understanding of Russian society. Historically, cross-border travel and academic collaboration have provided valuable insights into the dynamics at play in Russia.
In an era of complex international relations, a more profound understanding of Russia is essential for Finland and the West. The unfolding narrative is far from over, and as events continue to develop, analysts will have to navigate the intricate realities of a nation that remains a significant player on the global stage.
